{"editorial":{"content_id":"bed6423e-7df9-4dfb-b216-0e6cc9641430","slug":"ipespe-20261016-50ce9e","content_type":"news","title":"Ipespe周六公布卢拉与弗拉维奥对决民调，误差2.6个百分点","summary":"巴西民调机构Ipespe将于周六（17日）公布卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗总统之争的最新调查结果，并涉及政府评价、议题影响与下届任期预期。","body":"距离决定巴西下任总统的选举不到十天，民调机构Ipespe将于周六（17日）公布新一轮调查结果，显示弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（PL党）与卢拉·达席尔瓦（PT党）角逐总统职位的最新态势。该调查于周二（13日）至周四（15日）完成1500次采访，误差幅度为正负2.6个百分点，已在巴西最高选举法院以编号BR-00223/2026登记。\n\n除两人对决结果外，调查还涵盖选民对政府表现的评价、对总统候选人的排斥度、对未来一届任期的信任程度，以及对医疗、公共安全和经济等敏感投票议题的评估。\n\n调查还部分衡量了参议院周三（14日）两轮投票通过的终止6×1工作制宪法修正案的影响。据原文，问卷中相关提问并不十分具体。\n\n在10月4日首轮选举选出以保守派为主的众议员和参议员之后，调查询问选民：若当选，哪位候选人更有机会实现“巴西所需要的”变革。问卷还询问哪些议题对第二轮总统投票选择影响最大，选项包括“腐败与联邦最高法院危机”“提高家庭补助金”和“终止6×1工作制”。\n\n问卷的一个板块比较选民对卢拉与弗拉维奥竞选活动在不同媒体渠道表现的评价，并询问受访者对每位候选人是非常信任、不太信任还是不信任。\n\n调查还涉及选民的政治身份认同，选项包括“卢拉主义者、非卢拉左翼、非博索纳罗右翼、博索纳罗主义者、独立选民”。此外，Ipespe将评估国家经济状况及选民对下一届政府的预期，并收集受访者本人及家庭经济状况的信息。","why_it_matters":null,"cbi_observation":null,"direction_tag":"巴西","primary_category":"宏观市场","secondary_topics":["政治","政策"],"content_level":"编辑整理","event_type":"政治民调","audience_tags":[],"event_location":null,"verification_status":"unverified","published_at":"2026-10-16T11:04:51.863Z","display_date":"2026-10-16","source_published_at":null,"source_url":"https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/pesquisa-ipespe-medira-disputa-entre-lula-e-flavio-e-expectativas-do-proximo-mandato/","source_name":"InfoMoney","source_language":"pt","author_name":"编辑部","risk_level":"low","risk_flags":[],"opportunity_flags":[],"trend_signals":[]},"intelligence":null,"meta":{"canonical_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/news/ipespe-20261016-50ce9e","api_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/api/public/content/ipespe-20261016-50ce9e","markdown_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/api/public/content/ipespe-20261016-50ce9e?view=markdown","json_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com/api/public/content/ipespe-20261016-50ce9e?view=json","last_updated":"2026-10-16T11:05:14.410Z","platform":"China Brazil Insight","platform_url":"https://chinabrazilinsight.com"}}